Umbono Wokuhweba Komhlaba Wonke Wengxenye Yesibili Ka-2023: Ukuzulazula Ekungaqiniseki
Imibiko yakamuva evela ezikhungweni zamazwe ngamazwe njengeNgqungquthela Yezizwe Ezihlangene Yezohwebo Nentuthuko (i-UNCTAD) kanye neNhlangano Yezohwebo Yomhlaba (i-WTO) iqokomisa umbono oqaphile ngombono wokuhweba womhlaba wonke. Ngenkathi izinkomba ezithile ziphakamisa ukuthi izintambo zokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke eziphazamisekile ngenxa yobhubhane ziyalulama kancane kancane, njengoba kubonakale ukuthuthuka ekushodeni kwezimpahla zabathengi ezingabalulekile kanye nokubambezeleka kokulethwa, ikota yesibili kulindeleke ukuthi ibhekane nokwehla kokukhula kokuhweba komhlaba wonke. Uma sibheka phambili, amathuba okuhweba engxenyeni yokugcina yonyaka awathembisi, kanti ukubikezela okubonisa ukuthi ukukhula kokuhweba konyaka kungase kwehle ngaphansi kwamazinga angaphambilini. I-WTO ibikezela ukwanda okuncane okungu-1.7% kwenani lokuhweba kwezimpahla zomhlaba wonke ngo-2023, okuphansi kakhulu kunesilinganiso esingu-2.6% esibonwe eminyakeni eyi-12 edlule.
Lapho kucatshangelwa izingozi ezingase zithinte ukuhweba komhlaba wonke kanye nezintambo zokuhlinzeka ezinyangeni ezizayo, izikhungo zomhlaba wonke ezishiwo ngenhla zikhuluma ngezinto ezifana nokwehla komnotho womhlaba wonke, ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukuphazamiseka kwemakethe yezezimali, kanye nokungezwani kwezepolitiki. UMqondisi-Jikelele we-WTO uNgozi Okonjo-Iweala ugcizelele ngesikhathi ebambe iqhaza kwi-Summer Davos Forum ka-2023 eShayina ukuthi umhlaba awukwazi ukukhokhela izinhlobo ezahlukene "zokuhlukanisa nokunqamula." Ngokusho kwezilinganiso ze-WTO, ukuvikelwa kwezohwebo kwesikhathi eside kanye nokuzimela kwe-onegational kungabangela ukulahlekelwa komnotho womhlaba wonke okungu-5%, kanti amazwe asathuthuka angase abhekane nokulahlekelwa okungu-12% kuya ku-14%.
Kodwa-ke, phakathi kwalesi simo, kukhona inhlansi yethemba elivela eSouth Korea. Ngomhlaka-1 kuJulayi, uMnyango Wezohwebo, Izimboni, kanye Namandla ukhiphe idatha ekhombisa ukuthi iNingizimu Korea ithole imali eyengeziwe yokuhweba engu-$1.13 billion ngoJuni, okuwuphawu lokuqala lemali engenayo yanyanga zonke kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2022. Kusukela ngoMashi 2022 kuya kuMeyi 2023, iNingizimu Korea ibhekane nokuntuleka kwezentengiselwano izinyanga eziyi-15 ezilandelanayo. Izibalo zembula ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kweNingizimu Korea ngaphandle ngoJuni kufinyelele ku-$54.24 billion, ukwehla okungu-6.0% uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, kanti ukungeniswa ngoJuni kufinyelele ku-$53.11 billion, okubonisa ukwehla okungu-11.7% ngonyaka.
Ngaphakathi kwezentengiselwano zamazwe ngamazwe, idatha yezohwebo yaseNingizimu Korea isebenza njengesibonakaliso esihamba phambili somnotho womhlaba, okwenza kube yigama elithi “canary emayini yamalahle.” Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweNingizimu Korea, okuqukethe kakhulu imikhiqizo ebalulekile njenge-semiconductors, izibonisi, kanye namafutha acwengisisiwe, kusebenza njengesilinganiso esikhulu sesidingo sebhizinisi lomhlaba wonke kanye nezobuchwepheshe.
Noma kunjalo, kunezincazelo ezahlukene mayelana nokuthi ukwehla kwesidingo sezimpahla zaseNingizimu Korea kuye kwehla yini. Ikakhulukazi, njengoba sisondela kuJulayi no-Agasti, okungezona izinkathi zokuhweba ezisezingeni eliphezulu, kusalokhu kungaqiniseki ukuthi ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuye kwehla yini. UMoon Junghiu, isazi sezomnotho eBhange laseKorea, uphakamisa ukuthi yize ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kungase kuzinze noma kufinyelele ezingeni eliphansi, umbuzo obaluleke kakhulu okufanele ucatshangelwe ukuthi ukululama kuzolandela yini indlela “efana no-V” noma “efana no-L”.
URoger, uchwepheshe embonini yokuthutha impahla onolwazi oluningi eCalifornia, ubikezela ukuthi amanani okungenisa impahla e-United States azokhuphuka kancane kancane emazingeni awo aphansi kusukela emazingeni awo amanje kusukela ngekota yesithathu. Okwamanje, uChris Rogers, iNhloko yoCwaningo lwe-Supply Chain kwa-S&P Global Market Intelligence, uthi amaketanga okunikezela acishe abuyisele isimo esijwayelekile maqondana nomsebenzi, isitokwe, kanye nokuhambisana nesizini. Kodwa-ke, uxwayisa ngokuthi ukungaqiniseki mayelana nezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni kanye nezingozi zomzimba kuyavela njengoba izinkampani ziqala izinhlelo zokuvuselela iketanga lokunikezela impahla isikhathi eside, ikakhulukazi engxenyeni yokugcina ka-2023.
Sekukonke, ingxenye yokuqala ka-2023 ibone ukusimama kwenani lokuthunyelwa kanye namaphethini, okubonakala sengathi kubuyela emazingeni omlando. NgoMeyi, ukungeniswa kwempahla yolwandle e-US efakwe emakhonteyini kwehle ngo-27% ngonyaka; nokho, lesi sibalo sasiphezulu ngo-2% kuphela kunesilinganiso sezinyanga ezifanayo kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2019, ngaphambi kobhubhane. Ngokombono wempahla efakiwe, impahla efakiwe yokukhiqiza idlule kancane isilinganiso sekota yokuqala ka-2023, kuyilapho impahla eqediwe yokukhiqiza ifinyelele esimweni sokulingana. Uma sibheka idatha yezezimali, kusobala ukuthi isilinganiso sempahla efakiwe yokuthengisa ezinkampanini zemfashini esheshayo sihambisana namazinga angaphambi kobhubhane, kuyilapho abahlinzeki bemishini yasekhaya, abathengisi bokwakha, kanye nabakhiqizi bemikhiqizo kagesi beqhubeka nokubhekana namazinga aphezulu empahla efakiwe, okubonisa isidingo esisheshayo kunendlela entsha yokuphatha "efanelekile".
Ekuphetheni, ngokusekelwe emibikweni eshiwo ngenhla kanye nokuhlaziywa kwedatha, kusobala ukuthi ukuhweba komhlaba wonke kanye nezintambo zokuhlinzeka kusabhekene nokungaqiniseki okukhulu kanye nezingozi naphezu kokusimama kancane kancane komnotho womhlaba ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane. Noma kunjalo, ukufeza kweNingizimu Korea imali eyengeziwe yokuhweba yanyanga zonke ngoJuni kubonisa ukuvuselelwa komnotho kancane kancane emikhakheni ethile. Kusukela manje kuya phambili, imizamo ehlangene kanye nokubambisana okuthuthukisiwe phakathi kohulumeni namabhizinisi emhlabeni wonke kuyadingeka ukuvikela izintshisekelo zomuntu ngamunye ngenkathi kukhuthazwa ukuzinza kanye nentuthuko esimeme emnothweni womhlaba.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Julayi-10-2023