Intuthuko Yezombusazwe Iphazamisa Imboni Yezokuthutha; Abanye Abathwali Babheka Imizila Yasolwandle Olubomvu

Intuthuko Yezombusazwe Iphazamisa Imboni Yezokuthutha; Abanye Abathwali Babheka Imizila Yasolwandle Olubomvu

Esimweni esimangalisayo, izinkampani eziningana zokuthumela izimpahla zizama ukubuyisela izinsizakalo endleleni yoLwandle Olubomvu, okubonisa ushintsho ekuphenduleni izingozi ezinkulu zezwe esifundeni. Amabhizinisi amaningi okuhweba kwamanye amazwe afunde ezinseleleni ezibangelwe ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19, esebenzisa amathuluzi ezezimali njengokuvikela ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi.

Ngomhlaka-22 Disemba, inkontileka eyinhloko ye-Freight Index (Euro Route) futures, i-EC2404, yafinyelela umkhawulo wansuku zonke wosuku lwesihlanu olulandelanayo lokuhweba, yavala ngamaphuzu angu-1391.2, okuwukwenyuka okungu-14.99%. Lokhu kwenyuka, okudlule u-50% ezinsukwini ezinhlanu ezedlule, kwabangelwa izehlakalo zezombusazwe ezingalindelekile ezibangele ukwenyuka okusheshayo nokunamandla kwamanani okuthutha emakethe, okwathi kamuva kwathinta imakethe yesikhathi esizayo.

Ngemva kwemakethe ngalolo suku olufanayo, i-Shanghai Shipping Exchange yamemezela ukulungiswa kwezimali zokuhweba zezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ze-Freight Index (Euro Route) (EC2404, EC2406, EC2408, EC2410, EC2412), kusukela ngoDisemba 25, lapho izimali zokuthengiselana zibekwe ku-0.006% wenani lokuthengiselana kanye nemali yokuvala isikhundla yangaphakathi kosuku ku-0.012% wenani lokuthengiselana.

Abahlaziyi abaphezulu bathi ukuguquguquka kwamuva kwamanani esikhathi esizayo e-Freight Index (Euro Route) kubangelwa izehlakalo ezingalindelekile ze-geopolitical ezibangele ukwanda okukhulu nokusheshayo kwamanani emakethe ye-spot.

Umbiko wakamuva wamasonto onke we-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ugcizelele ukwanda okukhulu kwezindleko zokuhamba emakethe yokuthumela izimpahla e-Asia-Europe ngenxa yezinsongo zokuhlaselwa okuhlomile esifundeni saseLwandle Olubomvu. Lokhu kuholele ekutheni izinkampani ezinkulu zokuthumela amakhonteyina ezisebenza emzileni wase-Asia-Europe zimemezele ukuphambuka, okuholele ekwandeni okukhulu kwamabanga okuthumela izimpahla kanye nezindleko, kanye nokwehla kokusebenza kahle kokuhamba kwemikhumbi.

Beqaphela umthelela ongaba khona emakethe, izinkampani ezinkulu zezindiza ziphakamise kakhulu izingcaphuno zazo zemakethe ngesonto eledlule. Ngomhlaka-22 Disemba, amazinga emakethe okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kusuka eShanghai kuya eYurophu kanye nasezindaweni eziyisisekelo zaseMedithera abikwe ku-$1497 nge-FEU kanye no-$2054 nge-TEU, okumele ukwenyuka okungu-45.5% kanye no-30.9%, ngokulandelana.

Ngomhlaka-25 Disemba, abahlaziyi babelane ngombiko wocwaningo oqokomisa ukuguquguquka okukhulu emakethe. Bagcizelele ithonya lokuphazamiseka koLwandle Olubomvu emizileni yokuthumela, okudala amathuba okuntuleka kwamandla okuthumela emzileni we-Asia-Europe esikhathini esifushane.

Ngenxa yokulindela kwemakethe ukwanda kwenani lezimpahla, imithombo evela epulatifomu ye-Yun Qu Na yazise izintatheli ukuthi abanye abanikazi bemikhumbi bavule ukubhukha izindiza eziya eLwandle Olubomvu. Ukuhamba kwalezi zindiza kuhlelelwe ukuphela kukaDisemba, kanti amanani ezimpahla aphindeka kabili.

Ukuqinisekisa lezi zinguquko, izitatimende zangoDisemba 25 zisho ukuthi, ngokuhambisana nohlelo lwe-“Guardians of Prosperity”, izinkampani zilungiselela ukubuyisela ukusebenza endleleni esuka empumalanga iye entshonalanga edabula uLwandle Olubomvu. Zakha izinhlelo zokudlula ngokushesha okukhulu kweqembu lokuqala lemikhumbi, kuye ngokuthi kungenzeka yini ukusebenza.

Abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi lesi sinqumo singase sishintshe izibikezelo zangaphambilini zokushoda kwamandla ngemva kukaMashi, okungenzeka kusheshise ukulinganiswa kabusha kwamandla okuthumela.

Ngesikhathi behlola umthelela oqondile walesi sinqumo, izinkampani zigcizelele ukuzibophezela kwazo ekubikezelweni kwamakhasimende kanye nokusebenza kahle kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngempahla. Kodwa-ke, baphawule ukuthi naphezu kwezinyathelo zokuphepha zamanje, ingozi iyonke esifundeni ayikasuswa. Izinkampani zithi, uma ukuphepha kwabasebenzi kubekwa engcupheni, zizohlola kabusha isimo futhi ziqalise izinhlelo zokushintsha umzila.

Ngemva kwalezi zindaba, ngoDisemba 25, zonke izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo zeFreight Index (Euro Route) zehle kakhulu, lapho izinkontileka zehla ngaphezu kuka-8%.

Izikhungo eziningi zibone ukwehla kwesimo se-bullish emakethe, okubonakaliswa ukwehla kwentshisekelo evulekile yazo zonke izinkontileka kanye nokwehla okuphawulekayo kwezikhundla. Naphezu kokuvalwa ngokulahlekelwa okuncishisiwe, amanani aphezulu okuhweba abonisa ukwehluka okukhulu kwemakethe, okwenza kube nzima ukubona kusengaphambili ukuthambekela esikhathini esifushane.

Ukuze kuxwayiswe abahlanganyeli bemakethe, i-Shanghai Futures Exchange ikhiphe izimemezelo ezimbili ngoDisemba 25, ilungisa izilinganiso ze-margin kanye nemikhawulo yamanani ezinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ze-Freight Index (Euro Route). Lezi zinyathelo zihlose ukukhumbuza abahwebi ukuthi bahlole ngokuhlakanipha umthelela wesikhathi esifushane wezehlakalo ezingalindelekile emananini empahla ethengiswayo futhi bahlanganyele ezimakethe zesikhathi esizayo ngokulawula isikhundla okunengqondo.

Ngemva kokuhlehliswa okuncane, ngoDisemba 26, inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo ye-Freight Index (Euro Route) yazinza futhi yaqala kabusha ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo, yafinyelela umkhawulo wansuku zonke ngokunyuka okungu-16.99%.

Ukuhlaziywa kwabahlaziyi kugcizelela isidingo sokuqapha ukusebenza kahle kwangempela kwemisebenzi yokuphelezela oLwandle Olubomvu, ukulahlekelwa okungenzeka kokusebenza kahle kokudlula uma kuqhathaniswa namazinga ajwayelekile, nokuthi izindleko zomshuwalense ezandisiwe zizodluliselwa yini kubathumeli abangaphansi komfula.

Phakathi nentuthuko eqhubekayo, kusukela ngoDisemba 25, azikho ezinye izinkampani ezithwalile ezilandele ekuqaliseni kabusha imizila yoLwandle Olubomvu. Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Yihailan, ukuthutha kwemikhumbi yeziqukathi nge-Mandeb Strait kwehle kakhulu kusukela ngoDisemba 15, kanti inani lemikhumbi kanye nenani lamathani ngamanye libhekene nokwehla okukhulu.

Ukukhetha umzila omude ozungeze iCape of Good Hope, yize kwandisa isikhathi sohambo, akubizi mali, ngokungafani neSuez Canal, ekhokhisa intela. I-Suez Canal Authority ibike ukuthi cishe imikhumbi engu-23,000 yadlula kulo msele ngo-2022, yakhiqiza imali engenayo ecishe ibe yizigidigidi eziyi-8 zamaRandi. Njengoba kunentela emaphakathi engu-$347,000 ngomkhumbi ngamunye, lezi zindleko ziyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka minyaka yonke.

Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi iSuez Canal inegalelo elikhulu emnothweni waseGibhithe, okwenza cishe ingxenye yesithathu yemikhiqizo yezomnotho yezwe. Umthelela ophelele kwezomnotho wokuphazamiseka kwamuva nje kulo msele usazohlolwa.

Isigameko sangaphambilini sokuvaleka kweSuez Canal saqokomisa ubuthakathaka bokuhweba komhlaba wonke kanye nezintambo zokuhlinzeka. Nakuba umthelela wokuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi muva nje umncane kunesehlakalo sangaphambilini, izindawo ezibalulekile njengeSuez Canal kanye nePanama Canal, uma ziphazamiseka, zisengaba nomthelela omkhulu ekuhwebeni komhlaba wonke.

Abahlaziyi baveza ukuthi ukushintsha indlela yemikhumbi ezungeze ingxenye eseningizimu ye-Afrika kubiza izindleko ezengeziwe zamaRandi ayizigidi eziyi-1 ngohambo ngalunye kanye nesikhathi sokuhamba sezinsuku eziyi-7-10. Lokhu kuholele ekushintsheni okuphawulekayo kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni jikelele.

Njengoba kubikwe yi-Shanghai Securities News, amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe akhuphukile selokhu isimo sokucindezeleka koLwandle Olubomvu sanda. Uwoyela ongahluziwe we-WTI ukhuphuke cishe ngo-7% wafinyelela ku-$73.49 ngebhareli, kanti uwoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent nawo ukhuphuke cishe ngo-7% wafinyelela ku-$78.89 ngebhareli kusukela ekupheleni kukaDisemba 22, womabili afinyelela amazinga aphezulu kusukela ngoDisemba 5.

Kodwa-ke, uma kuqhathaniswa nomthelela wengxabano phakathi kuka-Okthoba no-Israyeli nePalestine, ukwenyuka kwamanje kwamanani kawoyela kubonisa izinga eliphezulu lokucabanga kwemakethe. Nakuba ukuvinjelwa koLwandle Olubomvu kungase kwandise izindleko zokuhamba kwamanye amaloli kawoyela, akuzange kuthinte kakhulu izisekelo zemakethe kawoyela. Njengoba i-Yemen ne-Israyeli kungewona amazwe amakhulu akhiqiza uwoyela, ukuphazamiseka akunakwenzeka ukuthi kuthinte ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iningi lokuthunyelwa kukawoyela eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuncike eStrait of Hormuz, ngakho-ke uma nje leyo ndlela yokuthumela ihlala ivulekile, kufanele kube nomthelela omncane ezisekelweni zemakethe kawoyela yomhlaba wonke kanye namaphethini okuhweba.

Abahlaziyi basikisela ukuthi ngokombono wesikhathi esimaphakathi, njengoba isimo sisondela ekuxazululweni, ukudambisa ukungezwani kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo kulindeleke ukuthi kunciphise kancane kancane imiphumela elandelayo ezindleleni zokuhlinzeka, ukuthunyelwa, kanye namanani ezimpahla.

Ekuphetheni, intuthuko yezepolitiki eLwandle Olubomvu ibangele ushintsho embonini yemikhumbi, kanti ezinye izinkampani zemikhumbi zibheke ukuqala kabusha kwemizila. Nakuba lesi sinqumo singashintsha okulindelwe emakethe yangaphambilini, umthelela jikelele ekuhwebeni komhlaba, izintambo zokuhlinzeka, kanye namanani kawoyela usalokhu ungaqinisekile. Abahlaziyi bacebisa ukuthi kuqashelwe, begcizelela isidingo sokuhlola ngokuhlakanipha ukuphazamiseka kwesikhashana kanye nokubamba iqhaza okunengqondo emakethe yesikhathi esizayo.